Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set out to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy.
» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains
between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses! «
Edward R. Dewey, 1967.
In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).
» Periods When to Make Money « - The original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co.
The diagram was apparently compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but Samuel Benner did not attribute it to him in 1875.
Reference:
Samuel Benner (1884) - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices (3rd. Ed.; original 1875)
Charles Capriole (2020) - George Tritch Strategy from 1872 has a 90% hit rate
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid
David Hickson (Oct 3, 2022) - The Next 20 Weeks - S&P 500 - Hurst Cycles Market Update
Lars von Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.
Lars von Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.
